Rajesh Ganesh
A 5159 close ?! Will bulls be able to give the final push for the expiry ?!!
Posted 3 months, 1 week ago by Rajesh GaneshCategory: NSE & Nifty
Stocks & Indices: NIFTY (S&P CNX)
Sectors: Trading
Sentiment: Bullish
Resistance levels : 5121, 5138, 5159 Support levels : 5080, 5063, 5050
www.tripleint.com
Share with FriendTripleint please come up with a writing as to what went wrong today.
”welcome back ramg...
during the middle of the series, the pattern was suggesting a reversal from 4950 levels itself and the surprise move was a move ahead of that level and also a consolidation above that level for a longer time.
on friday, 20th nov the bullish move reiterated the fact that bears are totally caught on the wrong foot. so overall when we were entering the expiry week, the pattern was so strong and was favouring bulls to a great extent. The volumes were also not so heavy during the consolidation and so there should atleast be a momentum rally which we havent seen yet.
The are only few minor indications of the fall, one is that though markets were rising on friday, there was no widespread increase in writing of 5100 puts.
one day before the expiry, nifty closed above 5100 and was also on premium, which indicated majority of the players were on or expecting nifty to go up.
But the overall pattern was so strong, that these minor indications were all ignored.
”Expiry day trading is the riskiest of all forms of trading and only proper money management could help in emerging victorious overall.
More than 'how much we are going to win' when the prediction is right, the important point to consider is 'how much we are going to lose' when the prediction is wrong will always help.
”Thanks Tripleint for the detailed explanation. It is good to learn from correct prediction as well as from wrong prediction. As you said Money Management is the key. From this forum, i can understand many people lost huge money yesterday. Thats the market at its best. Money making is not going to easy and it was never easy before too. So much more learning from this expiry and an eye opener - wakeup call to us. We can win from here. Considering this is the first expiry your prediction was wrong, i firmly believe, you can emerge victorious in next expiry. All the very best !!
”ramg...it is more than a compliment to say that this is the first expiry where my prediction went wrong..There are a few earlier instances where it has gone wrong (this time the magnitude was too large) and few instances where it was correct to the dot. So just thought of consolidating all that in one place.
http://www.stockezy.com/opinions/4392...
Again to reiterate even a 99% correct system is bound to fail once in 100 trials and betting all money would leave one bankrupt in that one trial. Money management is a must for long term success.
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